(1) Overview of Political Movements

Throughout May 2025, political movements within Sagaing Region remained active and consistent, showing continuous progress rather than regression. Political momentum gained from the Third Sagaing Forum, held at the end of March, carried forward into May. A detailed declaration was issued in May outlining the Forum’s political outcomes. Moreover, the joint political statement issued by the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament and the Sagaing Forum concerning border tensions with India marked a milestone in regional political cooperation. The Parliament also reported continued success in its public and online deliberations. The following are key events selected for in-depth analysis:

1. The Atrocities Committed by Indian Assam Rifles Against Tamoo PDF Members

On May 14, 2025, approximately 13 members of the Tamoo People’s Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG), temporarily stationed near Kamakyi Village, Tamu District, Sagaing Region, were reportedly captured and brutally executed by the Indian paramilitary unit known as the Assam Rifles. The report was first publicized by the international media outlet Chindwin News Agency.

Subsequently, the Indian side confirmed that a clash occurred between the Assam Rifles and an unidentified armed group crossing from the Myanmar side. This incident has been marked as the first direct military confrontation between Indian forces and Myanmar resistance groups in Sagaing.

Previously, in 2024, resistance groups operating in Myanmar had cooperated with the Indian government in handing over detained members of the Kuki-Chin insurgent groups. However, the recent execution of PDF members has drawn strong condemnation from the National Unity Government, which demanded a full investigation. The Sagaing General Strike Committee also issued a public statement. Furthermore, this event prompted the first-ever joint political statement by both the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament and the Sagaing Forum, signaling a significant shift in inter-group political alignment and collaboration.

2. Release of the Statement on the Successful Conclusion of the Third Emergency Sagaing Forum

On May 4, a formal declaration was issued regarding the successful conclusion of the Third Emergency Sagaing Forum, held at the end of March. Discussions centered on earthquake response and governance within the Sagaing Federal Unit. The declaration summarized the following key points:

1. The people of the Sagaing Federal Unit aim to implement a federal democratic system based on bottom-up federalism and self-determination even during the transitional (revolutionary) period.
2. There is a necessity to establish an interim government in the Sagaing Federal Unit, grounded in equality and the right to self-determination. A transitional federal constitution is also essential for this purpose.
3. All ethnic nationalities must be assured political recognition in accordance with their ethnic identities. Indigenous communities should be actively involved in shaping the emerging political landscape during the revolution.
4. Public service sectors such as IDP support, education, and healthcare are still under-resourced. Local governance bodies and implementing institutions at the federal unit level must coordinate effectively to address these gaps.
5. For enhanced defense and military operations, revolutionary forces within the Sagaing Federal Unit must unite under a coherent and systematic structure. Furthermore, stronger collaboration with ethnic armed organizations is encouraged.

During the Forum, the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament also presented a draft transitional federal constitution. This included discussions on the anticipated structure and function of an interim federal unit government. Representatives from various entities participated in these discussions, reflecting the growing cohesion between the Sagaing Forum and the Parliament.

3. In-Person Meeting Between Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament and Sagaing Forum Federation

On May 9, 2025, the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament and the Sagaing Forum Federation met in person at an undisclosed location within the region. This was officially announced via both organizations’ social media pages. The meeting marked a significant step in strengthening local political collaboration and was the second such in-person encounter.

This engagement also followed the Parliament’s participation in the Sagaing Forum for the first time, symbolizing a deepening of inter-organizational cooperation. The encounter is further seen as a confidence-building measure leading toward more unified governance efforts.

Timeline of Engagements by the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament in May 2025:

Since January 6, 2021, the Sagaing Federal Unit Parliament has engaged with both domestic and external political organizations to consult on the draft federal constitution. After the release of the second draft in February 2025, further consultations were held, resulting in both disagreements and positive outcomes.

By May 2025, the process had progressed to the development of a third draft and continued dialogue on establishing a transitional federal government in the region. Evidence indicates that localized federal political structures are evolving steadily, with preparatory measures and inter-organizational cooperation already underway.